What will US tariffs mean for the art market?

From the February 2025 issue of Apollo. Preview and subscribe here.

With 2025 underway and Donald Trump in office for the second time, should the art market be concerned – indeed, alarmed – about a possible trade war and its effect on art sales? Trump has already threatened tariffs of 25 per cent on imports of all kinds from Mexico and Canada, and to add a further 10 per cent to tariffs on goods from China. Where Chinese art is concerned, that will be on top of an existing rate of 7.5 per cent. At this point it must be said that the potential Mexican and Canadian tariffs are aimed at dealing with two issues not connected with the art market. Trump has given illegal immigration and the opioid crisis as reasons for this warning, apparently hoping that tariffs might force these governments to take more effective measures.

Apart from that, Trump is also talking about imposing tariffs on all imports from Europe. In interviews he has given since the election, he has doubled down on these threats, emphasising that he would fulfil his campaign promises and do so quickly. Trump is notoriously unpredictable and illogical: for instance, just before Christmas he repeated his threat to impose 20 per cent on European imports unless the European Union upped imports of US oil and gas. But the EU had already stated that it was envisioning this just a month before.

Should we believe him this time? Or is this ‘deal-maker’, as he likes to style himself, using the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic, subject to change? And why is it important? Simply because the United States remains the world’s largest art market by far, with China and the UK in second and third places. A massive hike in import duties will certainly hit those who are selling art into the US.

The record-breaking auction at Christie’s in November 2017, when Leonardo’s Salvator Mundi sold from $450.3m, showing a booming market less than a year into the first Trump presidency. Photo: Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images

We have been here before and it is instructive to look at Trump’s first term. Initially he was gung-ho for a trade war, notably in sectors such as solar panels, cars and steel.

Katalin Andreides, managing director of Andreides Law, explains: ‘In July 2020 certain works of art that originated from China – for instance, paintings, drawings or pastels; original engravings, prints and lithographs; archaeological or ethnographic pieces; and antique silverware [and] furniture were excluded from the complex system of tariffs introduced by the first Trump administration in 2019.’ She continues: ‘These exclusions were scheduled to expire in September 2020, but certain works of art remain excluded.’

Those dealing in Chinese works of art breathed a sigh of relief at the time, but the 7.5 per cent rate noted above could now be under threat again. Dealers I speak to mainly play down the danger. For example, Asaph Hyman, Bonhams’ global head of Chinese ceramics and works of art, asked about the first Trump presidency, says: ‘As most of the Chinese art offered at Bonhams in the United States is sourced there, the import tariffs had a limited effect.’ According to Mayfair dealer Daniel Eskenazi, ‘Buyers at our level were not really affected by the levies.’

Eskenazi, whose dealership specialises in Chinese art, operates at the very top end of the market; this bears out the words of Francis Petit, director at fine art shippers Gander & White, who told me that if tariffs are imposed next year, clients would be prepared to pay extra ‘for the really exceptional pieces’, but that there could be a problem with less valuable consignments.

However, Diana Wierbicki, partner and chair of art and cultural property at the New York law firm Loeb & Loeb, says, ‘the US generally does not have customs duties on artworks and so those tariffs [during the first Trump presidency] did affect the market, specifically because of the breadth of the Chinese tariffs, which applied to any works originally made in China – even if they were not being exported from China. Therefore, there was an impact both on contemporary works exported from China to the US on the primary market (direct from the artists) and also on Chinese works being exported from other jurisdictions to the US on the secondary market.’

Works such as this 17th-century Chinese waister corner-leg table, which sold at Bonhams in September 2024 for $1.6m, could be affected by tariffs that President Trump has suggested he is keen to introduce. Photo: courtesy Bonhams

I ask Christie’s Americas president Bonnie Brennan about tariffs during a conference call. It is clear that the question was not welcome, but here is what she said: ‘It’s yet to be seen what will happen. We’ve seen the imposition of tariffs in previous years … We can navigate any issues of resistance from collectors abroad who may hesitate regarding sales in the US.’

Interestingly, some other people in the United States who I asked about tariffs, even regarding Trump’s first term, declined to comment. There is certainly considerable nervousness about saying anything that could be detrimental to business or could antagonise the new administration.

When it comes to Europe, Andreides notes that ‘US tariffs on photography and prints from the UK and Germany have now been suspended since July 2021, as part of a broader five-year deal between the EU and the United States relating to the Airbus– Boeing dispute. The agreement temporarily suspends mutual punitive tariffs of certain goods, including prints and photographs printed no more than 20 years ago, and is expected to last until mid-2026.’

Asked what effect the tariffs could have on the art market, Andreides responds rather gloomily: ‘If these tariffs were in place – at these rates, especially – it would have a significant impact on the art trade globally.’

A different point of view comes from Emma Ward, now co-director of the London gallery Ward Moretti and, during the first Trump presidency, a director at the art dealer Dickinson. ‘The market was pretty good at the beginning of the first presidency, the economy was good and Americans felt confident. I made some good deals then,’ she says. ‘If I am honest I think Trump Two will have a positive impact on the art market.’

From the February 2025 issue of Apollo. Preview and subscribe here.